Randolph, Paul, Marc Gasol among best points bets for Week 8
By Tom Carpenter
ESPN.com
As always, the first thing we need to do when preparing to set a weekly points league lineup is examine the schedule so we can maximize the production during that stretch. Fortunately, the NBA doesn't shut down for the holiday season; in fact, it's quite the opposite, as the Association keeps every team's schedule pretty busy. The exception this coming week is the Los Angeles Lakers, who have only two games on their slate. Outside of Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard, that might be a blessing, because most of the team is struggling to various degrees.
The following week (Week 9) begins on Christmas Eve, but only the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves are limited to two games during that stretch. The only downer during Week 9 is that all but six teams (BKN, BOS, DEN, HOU, LAC, MIA) play fewer than four games. We'll address the best plays for that stretch next week, but it's important to consider how long you can keep a player when you add him to your salary-cap roster this week. As for the better value plays this week, let's get to it.
Guards
Chris Paul (10.9), New Orleans Hornets: No guard is averaging more points per game than Bryant, but as mentioned above, he only has two games on his plate this coming week, which means you should move along to another big-time performer who will play twice as many games. If you can afford the extra $100K to sign him, Paul is in position to lead all guards in Fastbreak scoring in Week 8. Not only will he play four times, but he will take on some weak competition (DET, NO, SAC, PHO), including a battle with his old Hornets team.
Kyrie Irving (9.2), Cleveland Cavaliers: Player injuries have a completely different effect in salary-cap leagues like Fastbreak than they do in standard redraft leagues. Nothing good comes from having a player of Irving's caliber sidelined for several weeks due to injury in redraft systems; because he is a high-end performer, you can't replace his stats while he is gone, so you simply lose all of his value. In salary-cap leagues like Fastbreak, there is a dual bonus. First, you can simply pick up another player of his ilk to maintain his level of stat production while he is sidelined. The second bonus is that when a player is sidelined, his market value remains stagnant, while other quality performers see their contract costs rise. Thus, only nine guards are averaging more than Irving's 20.3 Fastbreak points per game, yet 17 guards will cost you more to sign. Not only is he an excellent value in Week 8, but he has a friendly four-game schedule against the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks.
Jordan Crawford (8.3) and Bradley Beal (7.7), Washington Wizards: Crawford's career field goal percentage is under 40 percent, so he kills roto teams in that category. However, the impact of that poor FG% is limited in points leagues, because his all-around game (points, 3s, dimes, free throw percentage) outweighs the effect of his troublesome shooting from the field. With John Wall still out and A.J. Price sidelined, Crawford has been playing big minutes and cranking out quality stats. Week 8 brings friendly matchups with his old Atlanta Hawks team, the Orlando Magic and a back-to-back set with the Detroit Pistons. Beal is a bit less consistent, but he has posted at least 19 points in four straight games entering Friday's tilt with the Los Angeles Lakers, and you can add the rookie for $500K less than Crawford. Both of these Wiz guards are quality plays on the cheap.
Forwards
Zach Randolph (9.8), Memphis Grizzlies: Z-Bo can be frustrating in standard leagues because he contributes virtually nothing in blocks, steals, dimes and 3s. On the other hand, his game is built perfectly for points leagues because of his high-volume rebounding, scoring and, especially, field-goal attempts paired with a high FG%. Randolph has hit more than half of his 13.9 field goal attempts per game this season as well as 74.2 percent of his 4.7 free throw attempts per game. That makes him a stud in any points league. And with a $9.8 million contract, he's an excellent Fastbreak value, especially since he faces a number of weak frontcourts (CHI, MIL, DAL, HOU) in Week 8.
Anderson Varejao (9.1), Cleveland Cavaliers: Eight years of mediocre play from Varejao left him with little respect in the fantasy world as well as a very cheap Fastbreak contract to start this season. That's why he remains a quality value in Week 8 despite his stellar play every week this season. He has another four-game stretch in Week 8, a decent schedule (TOR, BOS, IND, MIL), and despite outperforming all Fastbreak forwards not named LeBron James or Kevin Durant, Varejao costs less than all but 25 forwards.
Ersan Ilyasova (8.5), Milwaukee Bucks: I tried to preach patience with Ilyasova early on this season, despite the fact that he was playing so poorly he could barely stay in the Bucks' rotation. It's paid off now, as he appears to have gotten himself off the schneid. Over his past four games, Ilyasova has averaged 16.0 points, 8.3 boards and 1.3 3s despite working as a reserve. In Fastbreak terms, he racked up 18, 24, 12 and 30 points over that stretch. There is obvious risk of regression here, but he makes for an excellent trade target in all leagues right now -- or waiver add, if he's still there -- and an quality Fastbreak value at $8.5 million.
Center
Marc Gasol (10.2), Memphis Grizzlies: About a quarter of all Fastbreak teams have been riding Howard, but you'll need to move on due to his two-game Week 8. Tim Duncan and Joakim Noah are quality replacements, but I like Gasol the most from that group at his price. He continues to be a complete beast in this game and has a nice upcoming schedule (CHI, MIL, DAL, HOU). He'll be a one-week rental, because the Griz only play two games next week, but he'll continue to post beastly stats until then.
Omer Asik (8.0), Houston Rockets: Asik had a couple of rough outings to wrap up last week (minus-5 vs the Spurs and four against the Mavs). That's fine, because it dropped his salary an extra $200K down to an even $8 million. Plus, he has been solid early this week with games of 25 against the Spurs and 22 against the Wizards. He has another four-game slate in Week 8 (NY, PHI, MEM, CHI) that includes a battle with his former Bulls squad. Asik lacks consistency, so there is risk in using him, but he is a solid play if you are up against the salary cap and looking for a cheap value.
By Tom Carpenter
ESPN.com
As always, the first thing we need to do when preparing to set a weekly points league lineup is examine the schedule so we can maximize the production during that stretch. Fortunately, the NBA doesn't shut down for the holiday season; in fact, it's quite the opposite, as the Association keeps every team's schedule pretty busy. The exception this coming week is the Los Angeles Lakers, who have only two games on their slate. Outside of Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard, that might be a blessing, because most of the team is struggling to various degrees.
The following week (Week 9) begins on Christmas Eve, but only the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves are limited to two games during that stretch. The only downer during Week 9 is that all but six teams (BKN, BOS, DEN, HOU, LAC, MIA) play fewer than four games. We'll address the best plays for that stretch next week, but it's important to consider how long you can keep a player when you add him to your salary-cap roster this week. As for the better value plays this week, let's get to it.
Guards
Chris Paul (10.9), New Orleans Hornets: No guard is averaging more points per game than Bryant, but as mentioned above, he only has two games on his plate this coming week, which means you should move along to another big-time performer who will play twice as many games. If you can afford the extra $100K to sign him, Paul is in position to lead all guards in Fastbreak scoring in Week 8. Not only will he play four times, but he will take on some weak competition (DET, NO, SAC, PHO), including a battle with his old Hornets team.
Kyrie Irving (9.2), Cleveland Cavaliers: Player injuries have a completely different effect in salary-cap leagues like Fastbreak than they do in standard redraft leagues. Nothing good comes from having a player of Irving's caliber sidelined for several weeks due to injury in redraft systems; because he is a high-end performer, you can't replace his stats while he is gone, so you simply lose all of his value. In salary-cap leagues like Fastbreak, there is a dual bonus. First, you can simply pick up another player of his ilk to maintain his level of stat production while he is sidelined. The second bonus is that when a player is sidelined, his market value remains stagnant, while other quality performers see their contract costs rise. Thus, only nine guards are averaging more than Irving's 20.3 Fastbreak points per game, yet 17 guards will cost you more to sign. Not only is he an excellent value in Week 8, but he has a friendly four-game schedule against the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks.
Jordan Crawford (8.3) and Bradley Beal (7.7), Washington Wizards: Crawford's career field goal percentage is under 40 percent, so he kills roto teams in that category. However, the impact of that poor FG% is limited in points leagues, because his all-around game (points, 3s, dimes, free throw percentage) outweighs the effect of his troublesome shooting from the field. With John Wall still out and A.J. Price sidelined, Crawford has been playing big minutes and cranking out quality stats. Week 8 brings friendly matchups with his old Atlanta Hawks team, the Orlando Magic and a back-to-back set with the Detroit Pistons. Beal is a bit less consistent, but he has posted at least 19 points in four straight games entering Friday's tilt with the Los Angeles Lakers, and you can add the rookie for $500K less than Crawford. Both of these Wiz guards are quality plays on the cheap.
Forwards
Zach Randolph (9.8), Memphis Grizzlies: Z-Bo can be frustrating in standard leagues because he contributes virtually nothing in blocks, steals, dimes and 3s. On the other hand, his game is built perfectly for points leagues because of his high-volume rebounding, scoring and, especially, field-goal attempts paired with a high FG%. Randolph has hit more than half of his 13.9 field goal attempts per game this season as well as 74.2 percent of his 4.7 free throw attempts per game. That makes him a stud in any points league. And with a $9.8 million contract, he's an excellent Fastbreak value, especially since he faces a number of weak frontcourts (CHI, MIL, DAL, HOU) in Week 8.
Anderson Varejao (9.1), Cleveland Cavaliers: Eight years of mediocre play from Varejao left him with little respect in the fantasy world as well as a very cheap Fastbreak contract to start this season. That's why he remains a quality value in Week 8 despite his stellar play every week this season. He has another four-game stretch in Week 8, a decent schedule (TOR, BOS, IND, MIL), and despite outperforming all Fastbreak forwards not named LeBron James or Kevin Durant, Varejao costs less than all but 25 forwards.
Ersan Ilyasova (8.5), Milwaukee Bucks: I tried to preach patience with Ilyasova early on this season, despite the fact that he was playing so poorly he could barely stay in the Bucks' rotation. It's paid off now, as he appears to have gotten himself off the schneid. Over his past four games, Ilyasova has averaged 16.0 points, 8.3 boards and 1.3 3s despite working as a reserve. In Fastbreak terms, he racked up 18, 24, 12 and 30 points over that stretch. There is obvious risk of regression here, but he makes for an excellent trade target in all leagues right now -- or waiver add, if he's still there -- and an quality Fastbreak value at $8.5 million.
Center
Marc Gasol (10.2), Memphis Grizzlies: About a quarter of all Fastbreak teams have been riding Howard, but you'll need to move on due to his two-game Week 8. Tim Duncan and Joakim Noah are quality replacements, but I like Gasol the most from that group at his price. He continues to be a complete beast in this game and has a nice upcoming schedule (CHI, MIL, DAL, HOU). He'll be a one-week rental, because the Griz only play two games next week, but he'll continue to post beastly stats until then.
Omer Asik (8.0), Houston Rockets: Asik had a couple of rough outings to wrap up last week (minus-5 vs the Spurs and four against the Mavs). That's fine, because it dropped his salary an extra $200K down to an even $8 million. Plus, he has been solid early this week with games of 25 against the Spurs and 22 against the Wizards. He has another four-game slate in Week 8 (NY, PHI, MEM, CHI) that includes a battle with his former Bulls squad. Asik lacks consistency, so there is risk in using him, but he is a solid play if you are up against the salary cap and looking for a cheap value.
